All posts by weatherlawyer

Amateur geophysics fan. Not a lawyer. That was something I dreamed up when I tried to get online for the first time. I am interested in all forms of weather law and geophysics. A pretty sad case really. (Without the pretty these days too.) I am very argumentative ...but how else can you reason with idiots?

Something for the weekend

There is a strange signal appearing on the charts for the 9th December 2016 at: https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/cartes_e.html

2016120600_024

I seldom carry these past 120 hours are they are notoriously bad for forecasts.2016120600_048

But you can see the compression building up on this one, all along the eastern edge of the large cyclone in the west.

2016120600_072

It last the full run at least so I can’t ay when it ends nor if it goes on past the spaghetti.

2016120600_096

What ever the case I am still assuming that the way it points and the type of air mass between them indicate their likely epicentre to be in this side of the globe  (Caucasian) as opposed to the Asian side (Indo-Chinese.)2016120600_120

This despite the presence of the Long High beside it and the pair of smaller ones on the other  (north-eastern) side.

I haven’t seen (noticed) such a chart before so I am unfamiliar with them the only one missing from my collection as far as I know is the massive eruption chart. I would expect that chart to have a long run that is somewhat similar to the above.

And we have missed out on a couple or three massive earthquakes very recently as well as some much further back than I care to recall. Generally they tend to rob peter to pay Paul; just as the weather does.

Whatever the case, three well defined air masses of the same type in aa straight line indicates either an earthquake or a volcanic eruption. If it is a serial signal covering at least three charts midnight/noon/midnight or noon/midnight/noon it evolves as volcanic

If there is only the one signal, or at most two, then it indicates an earthquake.

Notice how many cyclones appear in the North Atlantic:

6-december-2016-1

I don’t have anything to say about these. Generally with the NA-EFS a straight line indicates seismic volcanic activity.

6-december-2016-2

A triangle or (more unusually a rhomboid) indicates storms.

6-december-2016-3

High energy fields tend to attract anticyclones down from above, hence the lower temperatures associated with volcanism.

6-december-2016-4

The presence of occluded fronts cold alternating with warmth running across the Atlantic indicate that volcanic activity takes place on the arrival of the front along the coast of Europe.

6-december-2016-5

Cyclone that contain a spiral og warm fronts will evolve as earthquakes when the cyclone dissolves on the shoreline or in shallows.

6-december-2016-6

Volcanic stuff tands to bounce off a shoreline as though throw away magnetically.

6-december-2016-7

Such displays tend to enfold anticyclonic systems within them.

6-december-2016-8

Alternatively they can divide into multiple cored smaller cyclones in which case some counter rotation tends to be present.

So now we wait.

And pray.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SuperQuakes from 2009

2016-11-13 7.8 mww 56km NNE of Amberley, New Zealand
2016-07-29 7.7 mww 29km SW of Agrihan, Northern Mariana Islands
2016-04-16 7.8 mww 27km SSE of Muisne, Ecuador
2016-03-02 7.8 mww Southwest of Sumatra, Indonesia
2015-11-24 7.6 mww 211km S of Tarauaca, Brazil
2015-11-24 7.6 mww 173km WNW of Iberia, Peru
2015-10-26 7.5 mww 45km E of Farkhar, Afghanistan
2015-09-16 8.3 mww 48km W of Illapel, Chile
2015-05-30 7.8 mww 189km WNW of Chichi-shima, Japan
2015-05-05 7.5 mww 130km SSW of Kokopo, Papua New Guinea
2015-04-25 7.8 mww 36km E of Khudi, Nepal
2015-03-29 7.5 mww 53km SE of Kokopo, Papua New Guinea
2014-06-23 7.9 mww 19km SE of Little Sitkin Island, Alaska
2014-04-19 7.5 mww 70km SW of Panguna, Papua New Guinea
2014-04-12 7.6 mww 93km SSE of Kirakira, Solomon Islands
2014-04-03 7.7 mww 53km SW of Iquique, Chile
2014-04-01 8.2 mww 94km NW of Iquique, Chile
2013-11-17 7.7 mww Scotia Sea
2013-09-24 7.7 mww 61km NNE of Awaran, Pakistan
2013-05-24 8.3 mww Sea of Okhotsk
2013-04-16 7.7 mww 83km E of Khash, Iran
2013-02-06 8 mww 76km W of Lata, Solomon Islands
2013-01-05 7.5 mww Southeastern Alaska
2012-10-28 7.8 mww Haida Gwaii, Canada
2012-09-05 7.6 mww Costa Rica
2012-08-31 7.6 mww Philippine Islands region
2012-08-14 7.7 mww Sea of Okhotsk
2012-04-11 8.2 mwc off the west coast of northern Sumatra
2012-04-11 8.6 mw off the west coast of northern Sumatra
2011-07-06 7.6 mww Kermadec Islands region
2011-03-11 7.7 mwc off the east coast of Honshu, Japan
2011-03-11 7.9 mwc near the east coast of Honshu, Japan
2011-03-11 9.1 mww near the east coast of Honshu, Japan
2010-10-25 7.8 mwc Kepulauan Mentawai region, Indonesia
2010-07-23 7.5 mwc Moro Gulf, Mindanao, Philippines
2010-07-23 7.6 mwc Moro Gulf, Mindanao, Philippines
2010-06-12 7.5 mwc Nicobar Islands, India region
2010-04-06 7.8 mwc northern Sumatra, Indonesia
2010-02-27 8.8 mww offshore Bio-Bio, Chile
2009-10-07 7.8 mwc Santa Cruz Islands
2009-10-07 7.7 mww Vanuatu
2009-09-30 7.6 mwc southern Sumatra, Indonesia
2009-09-29 8.1 mwc Samoa Islands region
2009-08-10 7.5 mwc Andaman Islands, India region
2009-07-15 7.8 mwc off the west coast of the South Island of New Zealand
2009-03-19 7.6 mwc Tonga region
2009-01-03 7.7 mwc near the north coast of Papua, Indonesia

2016 -November-13 7.8 mww 56km NNE of Amberley, New Zealand

asxx16111218asxx16111300asxx16111306asxx16111312asxx16111318asxx16111400

2016-July-29 7.7 mww 29km SW of Agrihan, Northern Mariana Islands

asxx16072818asxx16072900asxx16072906asxx16072912asxx16072918asxx16073000

2016 -April-16 7.8 mww 27km SSE of Muisne, Ecuador

asxx16041518

I only have before and after images for the 16th of April as the volcanic eruption from that time provided the emf Pinch required to knock out the site owner’s connection.

It is a reminder of what can happen to even the best run websites.

asxx16041700

2016 -March-02 7.8 mww Southwest of Sumatra, Indonesia

asxx16030118asxx16030200asxx16030206asxx16030212asxx16030218asxx16030300

2015 -November-24 7.6 mww 211km S of Tarauaca, Brazil

2015 -November-24 7.6 mww 173km WNW of Iberia, Peru

asxx15112318asxx15112400asxx15112406asxx15112412asxx15112418asxx15112500

2015 -October-26 7.5 mww 45km E of Farkhar, Afghanistan

asxx15102518asxx15102600asxx15102606asxx15102612asxx15102618asxx15102700

2015 -August-16 8.3 mww 48km W of Illapel, Chile

asxx15081518asxx15081600asxx15081606asxx15081612asxx15081618asxx15081700

2015 -Mayl-30 7.8 mww 189km WNW of Chichi-shima, Japan

asxx15052918asxx15053000asxx15053006asxx15053012asxx15053018asxx15053100

2015 -May-05 7.5 mww 130km SSW of Kokopo, Papua New Guinea

asxx15050418asxx15050500asxx15050506asxx15050512asxx15050518asxx15050600

2015 -April-25 7.8 mww 36km E of Khudi, Nepal

asxx15042418asxx15042500asxx15042506asxx15042512asxx15042518asxx15042600

2015 -March-29 7.5 mww 53km SE of Kokopo, Papua New Guinea

asxx15032818asxx15032900asxx15032906asxx15032912asxx15032918asxx15033000

2014 -June-23 7.9 mww 19km SE of Little Sitkin Island, Alaska

asxx14062218asxx14062300asxx14062306asxx14062312asxx14062318asxx14062400

2014 -April-19 7.5 mww 70km SW of Panguna, Papua New Guinea

asxx14041818asxx14041900asxx14041906asxx14041912asxx14041918asxx14042000

2014 -April-12 7.6 mww 93km SSE of Kirakira, Solomon Islands

asxx14041118asxx14041200asxx14041206asxx14041212asxx14041218asxx14041300

2014 -April-03 7.7 mww 53km SW of Iquique, Chile

2014 -April-01 8.2 mww 94km NW of Iquique, Chile

asxx14033118asxx14040100asxx14040106asxx14040112asxx14040118asxx14040200

2013 -November-17 7.7 mww Scotia Sea

asxx13111618asxx13111700asxx13111706asxx13111712asxx13111718asxx13111800

2013 -August-24 7.7 mww 61km NNE of Awaran, Pakistan

asxx13082318asxx13082400asxx13082406asxx13082412asxx13082418asxx13082500

2013 -May-24 8.3 mww Sea of Okhotsk

asxx13052318asxx13052400asxx13052406asxx13052412asxx13052418asxx13052500

2013 -April-16 7.7 mww 83km E of Khash, Iran

asxx16041518

Sadly only a before and after here. I have no idea what happened.

http://www.woksat.info/etcvdasxx/asxx16041700.html

Both the US and Germany house alternative archives of the North Atlantic.

asxx16041700

2013 -February-06 8 mww 76km W of Lata, Solomon Islands

asxx13020518asxx13020518asxx13020600asxx13020606asxx13020612asxx13020618asxx13020700

2013 -January-05 7.5 mww South-eastern Alaska

asxx13010418asxx13010500asxx13010506asxx13010512asxx13010518asxx13010600

2012 -October-28 7.8 mww Haida Gwaii, Canada

asxx12102718asxx12102800asxx12102806asxx12102812asxx12102818asxx12102900

2012 -August-05 7.6 mww Costa Rica

asxx12080418asxx12080500asxx12080506asxx12080512asxx12080518asxx12080600

2012 -July-31 7.6 mww Philippine Islands region

asxx12073018asxx12073100asxx12073106asxx12073112asxx12073118asxx12080100

2012 -July-14 7.7 mww Sea of Okhotsk

asxx12071318asxx12071400asxx12071406asxx12071412asxx12071418asxx12071500

2012 -April-11 8.2 mwc off the west coast of northern Sumatra

2012 -April-11 8.6 mw off the west coast of northern Sumatra

asxx12041018asxx12041100asxx12041106asxx12041112asxx12041118asxx12041200asxx12041300

2011-July-06 7.6 mww Kermadec Islands region

asxx11070518asxx11070600asxx11070606asxx11070612asxx11070618asxx11070700

2011 -March-11 7.7 mwc off the east coast of Honshu, Japan

2011 -March-11 7.9 mwc near the east coast of Honshu, Japan

2011 -March-11 9.1 mww near the east coast of Honshu, Japan

asxx11031018asxx11031100asxx11031106asxx11031112asxx11031118asxx11031200

2010 -October-25 7.8 mwc Kepulauan Mentawai region, Indonesia

asxx10102418asxx10102500asxx10102506asxx10102512asxx10102518asxx10102600

2010-July-23 7.5 mwc Moro Gulf, Mindanao, Philippines

2010-July-23 7.6 mwc Moro Gulf, Mindanao, Philippines

asxx10072218asxx10072300asxx10072306asxx10072312asxx10072318asxx10072400

2010 -June-12 7.5 mwc Nicobar Islands, India region

asxx10072218asxx10072300asxx10072306asxx10072312asxx10072318asxx10072400

2010 -April-06 7.8 mwc northern Sumatra, Indonesia

asxx10040518asxx10040600asxx10040606asxx10040612asxx10040618asxx10040700

2010 -February-27 8.8 mww offshore Bio-Bio, Chile

asxx10022618asxx10022700asxx10022706asxx10022712asxx10022718asxx10022800

 

2009 -October-07 7.8 mwc Santa Cruz Islands

2009 -October-07 7.7 mww Vanuatu

asxx09100618asxx09100700asxx09100706asxx09100712asxx09100718asxx09100800

2009 -August-30 7.6 mwc southern Sumatra, Indonesia

2009 -August-29 8.1 mwc Samoa Islands region

asxx09082600asxx09082612asxx09082618asxx09082900asxx09082906asxx09082912asxx09082918asxx09083000asxx09083006asxx09083012asxx09083018asxx09083100asxx09083106asxx09083118

2009-July-15 7.8 mwc off the west coast of the South Island of New Zealand

asxx09071418asxx09071500asxx09071506asxx09071512asxx09071518asxx09071600

2009 -July-10 7.5 mwc Andaman Islands, India region

asxx09070918asxx09071000asxx09071006asxx09071012asxx09071018asxx09071100

2009 -March-19 7.6 mwc Tonga region

asxx09031818asxx09031900asxx09031906asxx09031912asxx09031918asxx09032000

2009 -January-03 7.7 mwc near the north coast of Papua, Indonesia

asxx09010218asxx09010300asxx09010306asxx09010312asxx09010318asxx09010400

Spot the Super-Quake II

I stink at collecting charts. Anything technical I fall over. I am never going to learn how to make videos.

But I don’t have to I am religious enough to believe if I start, others will take over where I go wrong.

Just not the people I first hoped might. That’s OK, he first offered Christianity to the Jews as if he had no idea what they would do to it. Such is death. It is inevitably one of those things.

The last superquake occurred on the 13th the next one is due on Friday afternoon (2 December 2016.) Let’s see if we can get ready for it this time.

November 2016

01     Tu        Venus: 37.7° E
02     We    19:38    Moon-Saturn: 4.1° S
04     Fr    13:04    Moon South Dec.: 18.7° S
05     Sa    05:13    South Taurid Shower: ZHR = 10
07     Mo    19:51    First Quarter
09     We    15:57    Moon Descending Node
Somewhere in here:
2016-11-13 at 11:02 42.7 South. 173.0 E. 7.9 South island New Zealand

12     Sa    04:29    North Taurid Shower: ZHR = 15
14     Mo    11:23    Moon Perigee: 356500 km
14     Mo    13:52    Full Moon
15     Tu    16:50    Moon-Aldebaran: 0.4° S
17     Th    09:32    Moon North Dec.: 18.8° N
17     Th    10:47    Leonid Shower: ZHR = 15
21     Mo    08:33    Last Quarter
21     Mo    10:08    Moon-Regulus: 1.4° N
22     Tu    02:48    Moon Ascending Node
23     We    18:48    Mercury-Saturn: 3.4° N
25     Fr    01:47    Moon-Jupiter: 2.1° S
27     Su    20:08    Moon Apogee: 406600 km
29     Tu    12:18    New Moon

For reasons we don’t yet see.

One thing we know the reason appears on a three day forecast called the North Atlantic. We don’t have them but we do have the analysis charts from then:

asxx16111100

Some time during that few days the weather changed.

asxx16111106

It changed because an amazing amount of energy went in the sump and didn’rt come out the same way.

asxx16111118

All we need to do is to find out why.asxx16111200

And all we need to do to find that out is to analyse what.

asxx16111206

What exactly went wrong with the due process of god’s law?

asxx16111212

What exactly went wrong with the due process of god’s law on the 13th of November?

asxx16111218

And kept going right on with every tropical storm until recently and even then…

asxx16111300

Resurgam!

asxx16111306

Stupidly the key to it all is in the top left hand corner just where the meteorologists hide it behind the label because they are ignorant and careless not just because they are flowerpots men. (Not that it helps!)

asxx16111312

Look at that littl knot of air masses in the Davies straight. That one strainge anticyclone in a knot of such deep cyclonic matter is a dichotomy

asxx16111318

It went from 1000 or so millibars to 959 did it?

How did it do that?

On such a nice day.

We can’t stop it doing it again but can we catch it in the act?

With enough tiome to spare that makes an alarm possible

Spot the Super-Quake

november-2016

I made a mistake here as I should have converted them to Jpegs. I think that would have saved them from blacking out.

I will redo the lot with some simple charts tomorrow, or whenever. What you are looking for is an anticyclone in the Davies Straight

Date Magnitude Location
2016-11-13 7.8 mww 56km NNE of Amberley, New Zealand
2016-07-29 7.7 mww 29km SW of Agrihan, Northern Mariana Islands
2016-04-16 7.8 mww 27km SSE of Muisne, Ecuador
2016-03-02 7.8 mww Southwest of Sumatra, Indonesia
2015-11-24 7.6 mww 211km S of Tarauaca, Brazil
2015-11-24 7.6 mww 173km WNW of Iberia, Peru
2015-10-26 7.5 mww 45km E of Farkhar, Afghanistan
2015-09-16 8.3 mww 48km W of Illapel, Chile
2015-05-30 7.8 mww 189km WNW of Chichi-shima, Japan
2015-05-05 7.5 mww 130km SSW of Kokopo, Papua New Guinea
2015-04-25 7.8 mww 36km E of Khudi, Nepal
2015-03-29 7.5 mww 53km SE of Kokopo, Papua New Guinea
2014-06-23 7.9 mww 19km SE of Little Sitkin Island, Alaska
2014-04-19 7.5 mww 70km SW of Panguna, Papua New Guinea
2014-04-12 7.6 mww 93km SSE of Kirakira, Solomon Islands
2014-04-03 7.7 mww 53km SW of Iquique, Chile
2014-04-01 8.2 mww 94km NW of Iquique, Chile
2013-11-17 7.7 mww Scotia Sea
2013-09-24 7.7 mww 61km NNE of Awaran, Pakistan
2013-05-24 8.3 mww Sea of Okhotsk
2013-04-16 7.7 mww 83km E of Khash, Iran
2013-02-06 8 mww 76km W of Lata, Solomon Islands
2013-01-05 7.5 mww Southeastern Alaska
2012-10-28 7.8 mww Haida Gwaii, Canada
2012-09-05 7.6 mww Costa Rica
2012-08-31 7.6 mww Philippine Islands region
2012-08-14 7.7 mww Sea of Okhotsk
2012-04-11 8.2 mwc off the west coast of northern Sumatra
2012-04-11 8.6 mw off the west coast of northern Sumatra
2011-07-06 7.6 mww Kermadec Islands region
2011-03-11 7.7 mwc off the east coast of Honshu, Japan
2011-03-11 7.9 mwc near the east coast of Honshu, Japan
2011-03-11 9.1 mww near the east coast of Honshu, Japan
2010-10-25 7.8 mwc Kepulauan Mentawai region, Indonesia
2010-07-23 7.5 mwc Moro Gulf, Mindanao, Philippines
2010-07-23 7.6 mwc Moro Gulf, Mindanao, Philippines
2010-06-12 7.5 mwc Nicobar Islands, India region
2010-04-06 7.8 mwc northern Sumatra, Indonesia
2010-02-27 8.8 mww offshore Bio-Bio, Chile
2009-10-07 7.8 mwc Santa Cruz Islands
2009-10-07 7.7 mww Vanuatu

 

 

Now you see it Now you see it

Now you see it:

28th November 2016
2016112712_012

Now you don’t:

29th November 2016.

2016112712_036

That means an earthquake, right?

Right!

And now a reality check:

29th November 2016

2016112700_024

Now you know why it was a nice day.

And meteorologists still insist on insisting they are not incomptent. but the good thing is than nobody got killed. Until I understood what was happening I would have aid that those who did get killed in out ignorance were grist to the mill canon fodder in the scientific endeavour. But now that we know what can go wrong there is no need for any more death.

 

You think?

 

Tomorrow’s Earthquake

2016112712_012

The first image is for the 28th of November and I need a bloody new computer waiting for this damn thing to load is gettin on nerves either that or the coming earthquake is to be followed by a damned large eruption.

I always feel violent with these bloody, bloody things!

2016112712_036

Anyway the partiall blocked line of lows across the canadiadian Border in accompanied by a strongly marked diagonal run from Alaska to the Mid-West. And it is not there for the second chart

Two quakes or  large one with something in the high sixes. And I really want to hit somebody, badly want to hit somebody!!!!

FUCK!2016112712_060

And there it is back again. Not only that but accompanied by a parallel line of Hight. So a Central American  and an Indonesian eruption

2016112712_084

Because this one from the 1st of December is going to rectify that-away. (And to think I can do all this when I am feeling like a bag of shit. Think what I could accomplish if I was ever given these when I am not affected by the damn things.)

2016112712_108

OK now we are 5 days out and this model is far too volatile for anyone even a muscle brain like me to cope with. What a pity I can never come back and take another look at them.

(Believe me, I have tried but it just isn’t the same.) Here is the North Atlantic at the same time:

27-november-2016-127-november-2016-227-november-2016-327-november-2016-427-november-2016-527-november-2016-627-november-2016-727-november-2016-827-november-2016-9

There is a lot more available to the team of meteorologists but they are not releasing them they will do a correction later of course fat lot of help that will be!

 

 

Totally tropical

How Otto and Tokage swarm.

2016-11-25-134928_1024x768_scrot

These storms are going to be keeping pace with one another, likley until they disappear together. I must admit to not realising this with such. And the rules for different oceans may not be the same.

2016-11-25-134957_1024x768_scrot

I don’t remember the algorithms to reduce these things to a more easily followed pattern but it is a mere navigators trick to work out where the eyes are in relation to angular distances.

2016-11-25-135007_1024x768_scrot

I really don’t feel like doing it the hard way,with chalk and dividers.

2016-11-25-135035_1024x768_scrot

I’d just as soon wait for the inevitable swarms (the recent Magnitude 7.0 will have been North Atlantic tropical storm Otto crossing land.) At present it is rebuilding in the Pacific.

2016-11-25-135040_1024x768_scrot

2016-11-25-135106_1024x768_scrot

The SED website had a perfectly adequate HTML website until they improved it, now I won’t touch it. The NEIC one is bad enough this is the second choice:

http://ds.iris.edu/seismon/zoom/?view=eveday&lon=-95&lat=17 virtually unusable but at least if highlights swarms. With all said and done you are best just selection the minimal sized earthquake that you want and downloading from the NEIS site. Select the longitude column and rearrange the data (to show the swarming.)

Since 4 .5 M is the best you are going to get outside of the USA, choose Magnitude 5 as your base.And here we have the first swarms:
2016-11-25 at 14:19. 39.14 N. 74.01 E. 5.2 M. S. Xinjiang, China.

2016-11-25 at 14:24. 39.17 N. 74.04 E. 6.5 M. S.Xingjiang, China.

Evidently we have cyclosis. You can follow the swarms much easier on this site: http://ds.iris.edu/seismon/? but it is written in cheesecock code